Date: December 28, 2024
Recent developments regarding Israel’s unilateral recognition of the administrative entity in northwestern Somalia (self-styled as Somaliland) must be understood within the following two frameworks, and no other:
- The Legal and Sovereign Framework:
- Somalia is a sovereign state recognized internationally within its 1960 borders, and a full member of the United Nations, the Arab League, and the African Union. Somaliland is Somali territory.
- The event of 1991 was the collapse of the central government, not the voluntary dissolution of the state or a legal secession. The emergence of the “Somali National Movement” was a rebel movement in the context of a civil war, not representative of the will of all northern communities.
- The Puntland region (northeastern Somalia) is part of the Somali Federal State. The areas of Awdal and Zeila reject secession. Therefore, the claim that “Somaliland” represents the entire north or that its population desires secession is factually incorrect.
- Any unilateral recognition of this entity is a clear violation of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter and sets a dangerous precedent for the fragmentation of other states.
- The Geopolitical and Strategic Framework:
This recognition is not an isolated diplomatic act. It is a step within a broader scheme with clear objectives:
- Direct Israeli Objective: To create a dependent client on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most vital financial maritime chokepoints. This serves the known expansionist plan referred to as “Greater Israel,” which seeks to create contiguous influence from the Nile to the Euphrates.
- Ethiopian Objective: To secure a seaport under political control through a weak entity that can be influenced, after direct pressure on Somalia and Djibouti failed to achieve this.
- Shared Objective: To activate the “theory of creative chaos” in the Horn of Africa. Weakening a unified Somalia eliminates any possibility of an independent Arab-Islamic power emerging in this strategic location. Keeping the region fragmented and in conflict serves non-Arab interests and distances it from its Arab depth.
- Link to the Palestinian Cause: Reliable reports indicate this recognition is linked to attempts to use Somali territory as a potential site for the forced resettlement of Palestinians. This makes the defense of Somalia’s sovereignty a defense of the Palestinian cause itself.
The Danger and Conclusion:
The danger is not to Somalia alone. Breaching the sovereignty of an Arab and African state, a member of the Arab League, in this manner opens the door for repeating this scenario with other countries. Whoever claims the right to dismember Somalia today will claim the right to dismember other nations tomorrow under similar pretexts.
The Call to Action:
- To Arab Governments: Diplomatic rejection must translate into tangible support. The issue of supporting the Somali Air Force, Navy, and military is no longer just aid; it is now an Arab national security necessity. Control of Bab el-Mandeb must remain in the hands of independent, unified Arab states, not fragile entities orbiting expansionist powers.
- To Arab Peoples and Institutions: There must be a real activation of joint defense clauses. The battle in Somalia must be understood as the first line of defense for Arab maritime security.
- To African Nations: What is happening is a continuation of neo-colonial policies redrawing borders by force. The unity and sovereignty of African states are at stake.
Supporting Somalia at this moment is a defense of the very concept of national sovereignty in the Arab world and Africa. A unified Somalia is a strategic barrier. A fragmented Somalia is a gap, and the entire nation will pay the price for leaving it open.
Shafic Yusuf Omar
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer
“BRCSOM” Strategic and Security Consultancy Group
www.brcsom.com / info@brcsom.com
